Have the car manufacturers reached their 2020 CO2 targets?

According to the data from 22 EU countries plus Iceland, Norway and the UK, the average passenger car registered in 2020 has emitted 108 grams of CO2 per kilometre. While this is a notable reduction compared to 2019, it is still 13 g/km above the EU’s official 95 g/km target. On a brand level just the BEV-only manufacturers plus DS, MG, Renault, and Toyota can reach this threshold.

EU CO2 calculation rules
We have simulated the official measuring structure by implementing the following aspects:

• Several manufacturers have formed CO2 pools: FCA teamed up with Tesla and Honda, Mazda with Toyota, Ford combined their registrations with Volvo and Polestar whereas the VW group integrated a couple of the smaller EV-focussed manufacturers: MG, Aiways, LEVC and e.go.
• Individual CO2 targets depend on the average weight of the car, meaning that PSA with their focus on smaller cars must achieve lower CO2 emissions than Daimler that can go as high as 106 g/km.
• Supercredits allowed BEVs and PHEVs below 50 g/km to be counted twice. However, most groups had so many of those registrations they reached the reduction cap of 7.5 g/km.
• Lowest 95%: From each manufacturer or pool 5% of their registrations with the highest emissions are left out in 2020. This has led to an effective reduction between 3 and 7 g/km.
• Eco-Innovations: Technologies that do not affect lab test results but still reduce fuel consumption in real life can lead to further reductions by up to 7 g/km. This rule can push emissions below the level we compute from registration data.

CO2 pool results
Applying this set of rules on our data brings most CO2 pools within target range. For Hyundai and Kia, Supercredits will be sufficient to push their emissions below their individual targets. BMW, FCA-Tesla-Honda, Daimler and Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi will additionally need to take out 5% of their registrations to cross the line.

Our calculations see Ford-Volvo, PSA and Toyota-Mazda above their targets. However, they should be close enough to reach compliance when factoring in Eco-Innovations. This leaves VW-SAIC who have already announced to have missed their goal by a mere 0.5 g/km.